By David Torrance
Was once it easily a victory for worry over hope?
How did the higher jointly crusade come so with regards to wasting it?
How did the definite crusade come so as regards to profitable it?
What can the folk of Scotland – and different aspirant countries – research from this seismic democratic occasion? Scotland’s independence referendum on 18 September 2014 used to be the main major poll in Scotland’s background. The a hundred days as much as 18 September used to be the legit crusade interval and the world’s media was once observing. David Torrance used to be there all through, in entrance of the cameras, at the radio, within the newspapers, on the debates and gatherings, aware of a few of the behind-the-scenes manoeuvrings.
A passionate federalist at center, defined disparagingly by way of the outgoing First Minister as ‘Tory-leaning’, Torrance made a valiant try to stay ‘professionally neutral’ all through. His statement and research because the crusade went via its many twists and turns was once regularly insightful, if no longer regularly popular.
'Reading this diary again in the course of the modifying procedure it was once transparent that, like (Nate) Silver (the US polling guru whose view was once that the convinced crusade had nearly no likelihood of victory), I obtained loads of issues mistaken (including the most probably margin of victory) but in addition many stuff generally right. at the very least i will plead, as reporters usually do, that i used to be most likely correct on the time.'
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Additional info for 100 Days of Hope and Fear: How Scotland's Referendum was Lost and Won
Until 1991, the main conflict-financing source was covered by the main political blocks to the rebel organizations, with a “top-down” structure that allowed guerrilla leaders to retain grip on the locals. Nowadays, the flow is “bottom-up”, deriving from the commerce of looted resources, providing incentives for local leaders to defect (LeBillon, 2001; Ballentine & Nitzschke, 2005; Azam, 2002).
For example, a region may host a culture with developed entrepreneurial sense, where the resource revenue may be invested for growth. Other regions may be more prone to turn into mere rent-seeking economies, increasing risks. The central state may leverage a set of policies to contain rebellion and foster local satisfaction, ranging from financial and commercial regulations, to outright military intervention. We can broadly cluster policies into two groups: “Economic” policies and “Control” policies.
Collier & Bannon (2003) made a direct comparison between the share of GDP represented by natural resources revenue, and the possibilities of civil war. At 25% of share there is a 30% risk of conflict; at 10%, the risk is 10%. “Quantitative-based methods” must be integrated with considerations about specific cases and policies, since large generalizations risk overlooking the particular country’s conditions. Moreover, prediction of civil war probabilities is made difficult by a set of analytical constraints.
100 Days of Hope and Fear: How Scotland's Referendum was Lost and Won by David Torrance